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September 29, 2004

Who determines the debate winner?

Howard Kurtz, appearing on CNN with Judy Woodruff, reminds us that public perceptions depend on what the [friggin librul!] media decide to focus on:

[JUDY] WOODRUFF: When George W. Bush and John Kerry meet for their first presidential debate this Thursday night, how they perform will matter, of course. But so will the news media's coverage of what they said and how they said it. ... What about the expectations that the media plays a role in getting out there?

HOWARD KURTZ, HOST, "RELIABLE SOURCES": Well, of course, all of America is waiting to see what you and Wolf have to say after the debate, Judy.

But more important, perhaps, is that people underestimate the role of the press, because what sound bites are we playing over and over again after the debate, what various pundits and commentators and pontificators have to say, what controversies reporters focus on in terms of any misstatements or exaggerations or charges and countercharges and the spin of the campaigns themselves, as trumpeted in the media.

All that in the 48 hours after the debate help shape our perceptions about who won, who lost and who didn't do so well.

WOODRUFF: So it's -- it's mainly, you're saying, what the media does and says after and not so much any expectations? Because both of these candidates are obviously busily lowering expectations for their own candidate.

KURTZ: I think people are pretty sophisticated these days, and they can probably see through these games of everybody saying that the other guy is the greatest debater since Cicero.

But what I think is important, and the classic example of this was four years ago in the first Bush-Gore debate. The instant polls showed a lot of people thought that Vice President Gore had won.

But the Bush team did a very skillful job of turning into a controversy, which the press then vacuumed up, various misstatements, rather minor in retrospect, that Gore had made. And that changed the whole story line to Gore had exaggerated to the point that he had to actually apologize in the second debate.

So the role of the press here is crucial, because the debate doesn't end when the candidates walk off that stage in Coral Gables.

WOODRUFF: But now you've got the campaigns very aware of this media role after the debate, and they're working hard to shape the media impression, aren't they?

KURTZ: They're absolutely going to be working the referees. I've been in these rooms during the debate. You often have campaign aides come out and distribute fact sheets, challenging what somebody said five minutes ago. It all happens in real time now. It happens on the Internet.

But I still think that the role of journalists, not just in scoring it as if they were theater critics, or to change metaphors, you know, covering some kind of boxing match.

But what are the controversies that are going to be in the second day headlines? What would you be covering the day after the debates and the day after that?

That is going to have a lasting impact as such as the people watching. And keep in mind a lot of people don't necessarily sit through all 90 minutes. They may dip in and out, and so the press coverage is going to influence their view of who was able to score points and who was able to get their issues out.


I think some of the public are becoming more and more aware of how the media chosen image, repeated over and over, contributes to our lasting impressions of this type of event.

Posted by Erasmus at September 29, 2004 06:55 PM
Comments

I'd argue that the Republican side is better at the post-debate spin. They always just seem more organized and more on-message than the Democrats.

Thoughts?

Posted by: Oberon at September 29, 2004 08:42 PM

Who determines who wins the debates? I do. And you do. Rivk. And Susan does. And Mark does. And Will and Matt and Heather and Amy. And Todd.Even Alex. The prize is each of our votes.

If you let the media decide for you, that's your bad. I gripe about the media as much as the rest of us for whom it's a pet peeve. But come the debates, if you haven't been paying attention so far and haven't already made your call, it's up to YOU. Nobody gets off the hook by pointing fingers. Either you make the effort to rise above it and somehow get past it, or you get what you deserve.

Of course, then I get what you deserve too. It's a problem. :-)

One good way to avoid falling into the media spin is to start watching by having a few concrete ideas of what you're looking for going in. Then grade it yourself. If necesary, go on blackout afterward. But for god's sake don't get pulled down into the vortex of triviality.

Posted by: bk at September 29, 2004 08:46 PM

"But for god's sake don't get pulled down into the vortex of triviality."

(sigh!)

Posted by: Erasmus at September 29, 2004 11:30 PM

But the problem is, except for policy wonks, its the trivial stuff that often helps us decide. I was a judge at some high school debates years ago and, while there are technical bases for judging, I found it really hard to decide who "won." I ended up relying on very subjective and, most likely, trivial criteria. That's pretty much what happens in a debate. Unless one candidate or another makes a really egregious blunder, they can both justify their policies pretty well. If you already have opinions on the issues, the debates probably don't matter anyway; we all know the differences between Bush and Kerry. If you are not sure where you stand, I think it will be very difficult to make a decision based on the substance of the debate. So, then less substantive factors come into play, e.g., Kennedy appeared more relaxed and in command than Nixon, Ford seemed to say (even though he didn't)that Poland wasn't controlled by the Communists, Bush I looked at his watch during the debate, etc. That's why I think these kinds of debates--where, after all, they really aren't "debating" with each other--are overrated in terms of what you can learn about the candidates. And then the media gets involved in trying to determine who won and the post-debate spin takes over. I would love to see the two candidates sit down on the Charlie Rose show and just talk; we would get a better idea of who knows the issues,etc. Or just have a call-in, where voters get to ask unscripted questions. Obviously, that's never going to happen. I always find the debates dull, especially these days as they are so scripted.

Posted by: MWS at September 30, 2004 09:09 AM

I am going to try and bring myself back to high school debate days and provide an academic analysis of who won in why. My theory is that nobody will win and that it will mostly be determined by spin, because both sides will rely on techniques that have nothing to do with actual rules of debating. Kerry has brought up some good points this week. If he could rhetorically ask questions that force the moderator to try and get some answers from Bush ,we might actually see a contest worth our time. I think the President has to go beyond rhetoric and politics tonight and actually provide credible answers regarding the justification for war, planning after the initial invasion, and a plan for the future. In regards to Homeland Security he has to defend not the policies that have come from his administration that I believe to be sound, but the actual implementation of those policies at the state and local level. Kerry has to provide details, period. Spending his time trying to knock Bush off message means he is simply going for all or nothing. If he is successful than he wins the election, if he is not than he loses. The trouble is, Bush is notorious for sticking to his talking points. I think a better strategy would be for the Senator to tell us why we should elect him as opposed to why we should not re-elect his opponent. Kerry cannot win a pin the tail on the donkey contest with Bush.

Posted by: Mathew at September 30, 2004 10:30 AM
Who determines who wins the debates? I do. And you do. Rivk. And Susan does. And Mark does. And Will and Matt and Heather and Amy. And Todd.Even Alex. The prize is each of our votes.

If you let the media decide for you, that's your bad.

I agree, but only if you actually watched the debate. I think there is a segment of the population that can't be bothered to watch the debates and just reads/watches the news on the following days. And so the post-debate spin has become important, probably more important than the debates themselves as they have become so rigid in their format.

This article provides a fascinating history at Bush and Kerry's debates, as well as an analysis of their styles. (WARNING: it's long).

I'm really curious to see the evolution of the post-debate analysis, tonight (after the debate) and over the next few days (relative to my own opinion of it, of course).

Posted by: mitch at September 30, 2004 10:31 AM

Edwards is going to be here in Columbus for the debate. They're going to show it on a big screen at a downtown park, and then have a rally afterwards.

Posted by: William Swann at September 30, 2004 11:45 AM

There's a reason I always turn off the TV after the debates. I hate post-game shows!

Posted by: Tully at September 30, 2004 05:11 PM

Nice blog, really enjoyed it.

Posted by: Dish TV at October 11, 2004 07:42 PM
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