Centerfield

I think if he has Presidential aspirations, he should look for an opportunity to move from congress to a governorship.

What Brian said. Being a congresscritter is all well and good, but for aiming at the Oval Office, go for governor. Congresscritters leave partisan track records that make them look indecisive or contrary. Governors can't do that, they have to take positions and forge compromise. That may earn them opposition, but leaves them looking like strong and decisive leaders.

With an easy win in front if him this year, Obama should take care not to say or do anything too controversial. He's got a golden opportunity to gain massive presence on the national stage without muddying his record.

It sounds like plain old propaganda to me. Same synchophancy, same oversimplicity. I know times seems hard, but why are they gonna try and make a messiah out of Obama. Yes his story is great but so are millions of Americans.

Rachel, are you thinking people get elected on content? :-)

My general sense of Obama's bright prospects is based mostly on the qualities he exudes when speaking. The content isn't unrelated, but if you assess his prospects without actually experiencing the delivery of the content, you're missing what most people are really responding to...

Exactly, Brian. And there is, IMO, a large porportion of the population who responds *more* to delivery than to the actual message. People may do this more on a visceral level than a deliberate one, but you can't discount the power of delivery. It's hard work to analyze and evaluate content, but people instantly know (and respond to) sparkle when they see it.

I largely agree, except I dunno about the more. I think people respond more to the sparkler when two deliverers are transmitting the same or vague messages. I don't entirely dismiss content when it exists.

I think it's more the case that generally political speeches have a lot less actual content than they seem to. They're really highly spun spun perspectives on issues which may not even take that much of an actual stand even though they express conviction and optimism. In the absence of much content, people are certain to respond to delivery. The more highly spun the content, the more value delivery can add.

"Barack is the new girl at school that everyone loves because they don't know anything about her. They just know she looks good, she sounds good and in a sea of undesirables, they want her to be all they wish her to be. "

Against the backdrop of Ted Kennedy and Sharpton at the convention, he looks fantastic. It's plain the party desperately needs new blood, someone sensible, credible, and articulate with liberal values. Someone who doesn't just fire up the base, but who reaches deep into the mainstream, and even makes conservatives stop and listen. I don't know if Barack can do that, but he better, because there aren't a lot of other possibilities on the horizon right now. I think Obama fits the future vision of the Democrat party -- specifically, mainstream and even somewhat conservative rhetoric during campaigns, but very liberal beliefs and actions while governing.

I agree Governor is the best experience for Presidential candidates, especially from medium or larger states.

I think delivery is important, because people pick up on your level of conviction and grasp of what you are saying. If you can't convey your ideas simply and straightforwardly, they are probably aren't ideas that you understand well and have real conviction about.

Against the backdrop of Ted Kennedy and Sharpton at the convention, he looks fantastic.... It's plain the party desperately needs new blood,... [s]omeone who doesn't just fire up the base, but who reaches deep into the mainstream, and even makes conservatives stop and listen. I don't know if Barack can do that, but he better[.]...

I agree with you, Susan. Barack sure looks like a great example of what the future of the party should be, but he really needs to go through the test of fire before we rush to label him "Presidential Material."

Dems are *so* thirsty for someone great and I think many of us are willing to crown the first ray-of-light individual that we run across as our future and our savior (sort of what Rachel was saying above). I think this thirst may *partly* account for our extraordinarily rapid appointment of Kerry as our nominee, but that's beside the point. Obama may very well be the future of the Dem party, but only time will tell if he can give us more than exceptional speeches. Dems need to take a deep breath, settle down, get over W. and *really* take the time to evaluate this man. We should not be so quick to anoint him until we at least see how he performs in national office.

Brian, to your last post, yeah, I see what you mean. You have a point, there.

I agree with all of you. He needs to get a Guvnah's position (as we say in Georgia) and gain administrative credentials, be seen as a leader etc. Also the Dems must be careful not to put too many eggs in this one basket. Lots can (and will)happen to test him. The rush to Kerry (an event that I believe happened) will hopefully make the democratic leadership be more thoughtful in the future. Unless, of course, Kerry wins.

I think in general becoming governor is a better route to the whitehouse, but I think there is a good argument for him taking the Edwards route with hopes of becoming the VP candidate in 2008 if Bush wins this election.

Being from IL, with a ton of family and friends still there, I believe he is more than just talk. He has that leadership quality; someone who takes charge by nature and finds a way to relate to people who he would seemingly have nothing in common with. I think the problem is that most people believe that although he sounds moderate, he is quite liberal on a lot of issues and that might be what hurts him.

The party is desperate and Obama isn't a bad sacrificial lamb. He might actually pan out, but how many times has there been a shining star treated as some second coming only to get squashed once The Hill gets a hold of him or her?

As far as 2008, I think it will be a bit soon for him. President Bush and John Kerry have shown that a few years in public life can get you on the road to the White House, but they are the unusual case. He won't even be national until January 2005, but you never know.