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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics |
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September 24, 2004More on E-vote - President chosen by a software bug? - or - May the Best Hacker Win!At this moment, I believe that there is a very serious chance of the Presidential election being chosen by either a computer bug or deliberate hacking. I believe that there is a 99.9% chance of districts being obviously wrong in a jurisdiction that doesn't have vote counting mechanisms alternate to evoting machines (that's already happened). I believe that evote vendors probably literally have thousands of bugs (see below for analysis). Why are things this bad? As I said here , it boils down to lack of results accuracy checking. Even with hanging chads, we knew the error was likely at worst 5%, because that's the high usual error rate for punch ballots. Because there is no checking of evote machine results against any other tallies or results, there is absolutely no limit on how mistaken the machine can be. It could be 100% off, and we could't know that. In fact, even if the vote comes out obviously flawed - 120% for Bush or 100% for Kerry, there is no backup mechanism other than a revote. There are at least two sources of possible error: deliberate hacking and software bugs. Without a detection mechanism, it's hard to put a limit on what either of these mechanisms might do. Either a hacker or even one bug is certainly capable of completely changing the direction all jurisdictions using a particular kind of machine go in the vote tally. I'm not sure I can assign an overall likelihood of hacking, except to note that it's a pretty tempting target, and an easier one than the vendors say it is ( more here) . Now, bugs I know well. The e-vote vendors very likely have at least thousands of bugs; the secretive testing process evote vendors have is likely to have only taken them down to at best 1 bug per 100 lines of software source code, and they probably have at least hundreds of thousands of lines of source code. They may well have more, since new software starts at about 1 bug per 10 lines. Most bugs are fairly harmless, but there are many severe bugs in any product of any complexity, especially in new products like evote machines. So how about that "serious chance" of the election being changed? Well, because the election appears to be close, it looks like it'll take relatively few ballots to change this one. My gut (from dealing with many large, buggy computer systems over the years, and from reading articles about major failures and poor testing levels - bad tests generally mean lots of bugs) thinks that there is a 2/3 chance of there being bugs or hacks big enough to affect a larger fraction of ballots than the margins of victory in swing states. And, of course, it could go to the guy who should win or the guy who should lose, taking the chance of a change down to 1/3. Of course, that's a WAG. The thousands of bugs bit is rather better-founded.
I tell you, Bush and Kerry should be out working machine rooms,
canvassing the computer vote.
Comments
San Diego County uses Diebold voting machines. And as in the primary, I will be using absentee voting. Why? Because at least that system uses a Scantron-style ballot where you fill in a circle. If a hand recount is somehow necessary, there will be no question who I voted for. I don't trust companies like Diebold with my vote. They've been caught and are being sued by the state of California for putting uncertified software on the machines, which have no paper trail. Posted by: JonBuck at September 24, 2004 03:15 AMI'm afraid that e-voting is too new for government officials to have had a chance to think through the process of how it should be managed, from software design and testing, to setup and installation throughout the country. (I could be wrong here, as I have not thoroughly followed this issue.) My gut feeling is that the government, working through third-party companies or agencies, should be very active in certifying the underlying source code of e-voting software and collaborating with the software vendors to thoroughly test it. They already to this to some extent via FDA certification of vendors with whom they contract. The bugs, I think, should be managable. Although there might be 1 bug for every 100 lines of code, a prioritization process (one that rates bugs that skew the vote count as "severe") might reduce that rate to 1 per 1000 or even 10000 lines. The real concern should be hackers, who have proven themselves to be very industrious. The only thing working against them is time, as they'll not have access to the software before actually sitting at the computer on election day. If you work in the IT industry, working for an e-voting company would be among the most exciting places to work these days! Posted by: Steven Brown at September 24, 2004 08:52 AMWow, that's scary. It's like old Chicago on a national scale. I heard a story on NPR the other day about this and the consensus seems to be that there is no perfect system of voting and that any one has potential flaws. It seems to me that, at least for federal elections, the federal government needs to be involved in setting some sort of standards for voting machines. At least standardize the system so that people in different parts of the country aren't voting in different ways. Posted by: MWS at September 24, 2004 09:20 AMI'm sure computer voting will eliminate fraud every bit as effectively as computers have led us to the age of the paperless office. Oh wait, my bad. This is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Two freight trains traveling 5 miles an hour, still miles apart, braking furously, and yet the collision just can't be stopped. Voting for the President should be done on a uniform and separate simple paper ballot (An opinion expressed by others all across the blogosphere, BTW.) simply because it's a process every American can understand. With any form of computer system, we're left with 99+% of the people really having no reasonable certainty whatsoever how secure the voting is. It will be entirely based on trust of technology. Conspiracy theorists and numerologists will have a field day. It will become a commonly expressed article of faith and excuse for not voting that "it's all fixed" anyway. Multiple movies over the next few years will include plot threads in which savvy techies game the system with the click of a mouse and the public is none the wiser. Manchurian candidate as the ghost in the machine. My opinion is that for something so important, you just can't overrate the importance of trust. Paper ballots. Posted by: bk at September 24, 2004 09:23 AMIt's true that there's no perfect system. In fact, e-vote can be more accurate and safer than other voting systems, if there is serious testing to make sure it works, including verified printed-out paper ballots as a backup, and spot checks to make sure it's working in 2-5% of precincts. It's just that right now there are NO checks. E-vote companies do have their software tested, but with completely secret results, limiting its effectiveness. In fact, e-vote vendors work hard to discourage even the kinds of system tests that are routinely done for other important applications. No business will go live with a new application without a long field test cycle , and a robust testing regimen. E-vote is, though. You can't manage bugs if you never find them. To find bugs, you need, well, robust testing. Posted by: Jon Kay at September 24, 2004 10:31 AMI'm sure e-vote COULD be more accurate as well as more efficient, I just think trust is more important. As long as we use paper ballots, cheating can only be marginal, a few ballots here and there. Since e-voting can't generate a verifiable chain of evidence paper trail, trust will always be lower unless you can get people to eschew the conspiracy mouse-click vote-change theory. in essence, my argument rests on parsimony. Use paper ballots and then count them seems entirely adequate to the task. The alternative of using buttons, machines, wires, electricity, software, hardware, engineers, bug testing, diagnostics, and so on just doesn't seem like an improvement. i realize that this is the Luddite view, but technophobia is real, and it's not guaranteed wrong. Posted by: bk at September 24, 2004 11:33 AMbk is correct. I just wanted a chance to say that...cuz it doesn't happen all that much. :) hehehe Posted by: carla at September 24, 2004 01:52 PMIt scary and depressing how certain politicians are ignoring the computer experts AND common sense because they want a voting system that cannot be verified. Posted by: Oberon at September 24, 2004 03:22 PM |
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