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September 24, 2004

Allawi's Speech and Kerry's Reaction

Today further convinced me that Kerry faces a huge competitive disadvantage in this race. I say that in large part based on the fact that Kerry seems to have accepted the fact that Iraq will be the issue that decides the election.

Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi gave a speech to a joint session of Congress today. The speech emphasized gratitude and optimism. Assuming for the sake of this post that Allawi's stated optimism was to at least some extent exaggerated, what can Kerry say? "Allawi is right" is not a good option, politically. So, instead, we get this: "Kerry: Allawi's Take on Iraq Unrealistic."

It looks to me like Kerry is cornered. There is almost nothing that he can say about Iraq that will not lose him as many votes as he gains in the process. A "more troops, fix the mess" message would sap energy from the base. A "cut our losses approach" would deter swing voters. An "I will do better" argument is just too vague. We may be approaching "checkmate."

Posted by Todd Pearson at September 24, 2004 12:29 AM
Comments

You are right about the corner Kerry is in.

It seems like Kerry's strategy had been to take a me-too policy on Iraq, hoping that the public would then decide the election on domestic issues. But with Iraq continuing to be the dominant issue, Kerry must find some daylight between his position and Bush's, or else the public will stick with the known quantity.

Bush's shot at Kerry for undermining morale is cheap, but possibily effective. If Kerry agrees with Bush, why not keep Bush in office. If he disagrees with Bush, he's not supporting our troops.

Nonetheless, I think he must fight it out on foreign policy, and keep daylight between his position and the Presidents. If some people think that's a flip-flop, then those voters are lost to him. But it gives him a chance to win over some voters in the debates.


Posted by: rickheller at September 24, 2004 12:51 AM

I loved that the candidate who is supposed to bring in a new era of international cooperation pretty much called the man, who he will need to work with the most after the election, a liar. That's diplomacy for ya'...

Posted by: Mathew at September 24, 2004 09:14 AM

I agree that Kerry is in a difficult position. ON the other hand, Bush and Allawi can give all the speeches they want, but the fact is things are blowing up in Iraq every day. There seems to be increasing skepticism among the electorate about Iraq and just making a speech saying thank you isn't going to alleviate it.

Posted by: MWS at September 24, 2004 09:23 AM

Eh, I don't know if he was calling Allawi a *liar* so much as disagreeing with his assessment. I think Kerry was attempting to provide a reality check, reminding us (as if we need to be reminded) that things in Iraq are not all wine and roses. I learned the other day that a cousin of my good friend was killed in Mosul this month, so it's sort of starting to feel like the war is coming home.

*Anyway, *I do think that it might have behooved Kerry to avoid referencing Allawi and just reiterate the facts on the ground. I did think, when I heard his speech, "Gee, I wonder how Allawi will receive this? I wonder if this will strain their working relationship?" Of course, if elections occur in Iraq in January, there's no gaurantee that Allawi will be elected, so maybe Kerry and he won't be working together at all (assuming, of course, that *Kerry* gets elected).

Posted by: AmyE at September 24, 2004 10:19 AM

Amy,

Your assessment is better than mine, technically he did not refer to him as a liar. However, I don't think it is smart diplomacy to tell a man what the conditions in his own country are.

Posted by: Mathew at September 24, 2004 10:27 AM

Mathew,

Agreed. :-)

Posted by: AmyE at September 24, 2004 10:29 AM

I listened to Allawi's speech in its entirety on NPR. At the time, I was aware that he is here with his game face on and his mission is to project confidence and optimism. I felt what he said was important, and he did not whitewash the challenges Iraq is facing, though he did try and communicate a message of progress. And he kept his focus on the exit strategy.

Remember that exit strategy we're supposed to have? It runs something along these lines:

1. Use a combination of US and Iraqi forces, plus political maneuvers (e.g. working with the popular Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani) to destroy Moqtada al-Sadr's militia and rally popular support to the government.

2. Use the same strategies to isolate Zarqawi and his forces in Fallujah. Rely on the Iraqis to work the tribal politics and separate the terrorists from the civilians they hide among.

3. Continue with reconstruction on schools, roads, hospitals, banks and courthouses in areas that are not battle zones (15 out of 18 districts according to Allawi). Give people confidence that "normal" life is possible.

4. Apply pressure on Syria and Iran to stop the flow of weapons and foreign fighters across the border, or failing that, attempt to interdict those flows.

5. Build a strong Iraqi Army, National Guard and police force that can take over stabilizing their country and enable it to proceed along the path to democratization.

6. Do everything we can to ensure that popular elections are held on schedule, same as we are doing in Afghanistan. Understand that the violence we are seeing in Iraq is an attempt by the bad guys to force us into retreat and prevent this from happening. They know that if elections are held and popular rule takes hold, they have no chance of winning.

Joe Lieberman understands this strategy. John Kerry does not. (BTW, it's been reported that Allawi actually kissed Lieberman on the cheek? Blew me away.)

I was dismayed, but not surprised by Kerry's sour comments afterward. He is, as Todd and Rick point out, in a catch-22. He can't endorse Bush, but he can't seem to be rooting for the bad guys. Unfortunately, that's the way it comes off. Bush has pre-empted the "we're going to finish what we started" position, leaving Kerry with the "we're going to get the hell out while the getting's good" position. That plays well to a portion of his base, but it plays into the image that he is pessimistic, weak and an appeaser - not the kind of person you want leading a country in wartime. Moreover, he has nothing but criticism to offer - no positive message about how he will achieve what he says Bush cannot.

I would have more respect for Kerry if, like Howard Dean, this had been his position from the get-go and he had built his strategy around being the anti-war solider/hero. Or, if like Lieberman, he was in the hawk camp (though that was sure to lose him the nomination). The problem with Kerry is that he is only sure he wants to be president, but he seems to be sure of nothing else.

Posted by: PurpleStater at September 24, 2004 11:24 AM

Bush's entire Iraq plan has been based on being reelected, not to do what's best for Iraq or the Iraqi people. Every move they've made has been political in nature.

Yesterday's press conference for Bush was an unmitigated disaster. Bush doesn't know that the Afghan Army is in Afghanistan, not Najaf. Bush doesn't know that they can't have free and fair elections in Iraq in January...and Rumsfeld doesn't care, as he came out and said yesterday.

Kerry has been hitting Bush hard on Iraq and it's making a noticeable difference.

It baffles me that anyone could support Bush on Iraq or on terrorism. Bush has absolutely no clue..as he showed yesterday...and the rest of his people appear to not care.

Posted by: carla at September 24, 2004 01:44 PM

After purple's logic, reading carla's Bush-hate rant makes me smile, sadly, about the misguided caring.

Bush has long had the right answer -- get rid of dictatorships.

It's Kerry who has no clue, and silly voters who fail to demand, or receive, honest appraisals of good and bad points of alternative policies. From either side. But no amount of Bush-hate tells me how Kerry does Iraq better -- and Kerry's words tell me he blows it.

Posted by: Tom Grey at September 25, 2004 12:39 AM
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