Centerfield

Do you buy it?

I can buy that he's running as a centrist, but not that he is a centrist, because his entire political history argues against it. On the other hand I don't fear a Kerry presidency because I think you're absolutely correct that he would be forced to rule as a centrist in the face of a Republican or divided Congress, much as Clinton was after 1994.

I think he is a politician. When running from his homestate he is a New England liberal, when running for the Presidency he moves to the center. I think Kerry is smart, and will more than likely govern from the center, or at least left of center especially since it is likely that one if not both houses of Congress will be under Republican control (I would argue that the Democrats are going to take back the Senate).

I do disagree with the notion that Kerry's career has been that of a garden variety liberal (after doing some research). He voted with his party in the eighties, but in his latter years he has shown some glimmer of hope by pissing off the UAW by sponsoring a bill that would tighten fuel efficiency standards, and breaking from his party to vote for the Clinton/Republican Congress balanced budget. I think the problem with Kerry, is we do not know which one will show up on any given day.

I have pointed out several things he has said in the last few weeks that I have liked. His message is coming together nicely, and the Bush administration is falling apart and they are relying on the "don't vote for him, he's an elitist liberal" message too much. This been said, two months ago I thought Bush's message was dead on and Kerry's was a flop, and there is a lot of time left.

I think there are a few things coming up that are key for Kerry:

1. The running mate - My fear is that he is going to pick Gephardt because it makes the most sense, but the former Majority Leader and Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack will be poor choices that eventually will validate Kerry's tax and spend liberal status in the mind's of voter's. I think he has got to go with Edwards or someone with centrist appeal. Wes Clark is smart, but weird... I think most voters are scared of him. I heard the other day that Kerry interviewed Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Senator John Breaux from Louisiana... Both would be great choices.

2. The Convention - Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, and Al Gore should be kept in the back, while Bill Clinton, Harold Ford, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, and other like minded moderates, need to be the face of the party. Kerry cannot resort to the same class warfare argument like Gore did in 2000. If he sounds like a Democrat of the eighties he will lose like a Democrat from the eighties.

3. Social Security - This issue is no longer the third rail. The Bush campaign is deciding whether to make an issue out of social security. If they do, you can bet it will be a very well prepared and fine tuned campaign. Kerry cannot come back with the same "scare the senior citizens" approach that the Democrats have relied on for too long. A majority of people under 40 do not believe in Social Security or that it will be around for them when they retire. If Bush gives them a well articulated alternative, Kerry will have to come up with more than an anti-privatization argument.

3. The Debates - They cannot underestimate Bush like Gore did and come off as a condescending liberal elitist. Kerry should take heart that the American people are not as quick on the issues as he is, and if he talks to them like he would talk to a group of policy wonks it will not be good.

4. The Message - Kerry should keep on the path of making policy proposals and explaining why in those specific areas Bush has failed. The Al Gore, Howard Dean, angry liberal approach will in the end abandon voters. Nobody has ever been elected President of the United States on a negative, angry message.

Part of what I fear about Kerry is that because he's so susceptible to the power of suggestion, he may get pulled to the far left by the wingnuts in his own party. Seeing the droves of Michael Moore worshipers who believe Bush lied for oil scares me that these people will have access to the White House if Kerry is elected. He needs to denounce these wingnuts and keep reaffirming a strong stance against terrorism to win me over.

Mathew, trust me on this--Sebelius would be a lousy choice. She's a ex-patriate child of the old Daley machine who married into the Kansas Democrats. She would never have been elected here in Kansas if the moderate candidates in the GOP primary hadn't gotten clobbered by vote-splitting, resulting in a far-right nut on the GOP ticket that the GOP moderates couldn't stomach.