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May 25, 2004

A Deal with al-Sadr?

The Christian Science Monitor suggests that a deal is imminent:

The four-point agreement, which has already been agreed to by Sadr, according to [an aide of a Governing Council member], calls for the Mahdi Army to become an unarmed political movement and requires the Mahdi Army to return all government property - such as police cars, buildings, and guns - to the state. Coalition forces agree to pull out of the holy cities immediately. The possible accord also obligates Sadr to be tried by an Iraqi court if he is asked to do so after the transfer of authority June 30th.

If this is true, I think this is probably the right thing to do. Attempting to crush his forces militarily apparently has only increased his popularity.

Posted by Todd Pearson at May 25, 2004 10:39 PM
Comments

I don't have a strong opinion either way on this one, but couldn't leaving al-Sadr with any sort of power be a mistake? Is this not someone who can bring unrest to the country once Americans are gone?

Posted by: Mathew Pruitt at May 26, 2004 09:03 AM

This is an incredibly difficult balancing act, and there appears to be no doubt that his surge in popularity is directly related to his standing up to the Americans. It seems highly plausible to me that if both sides step back from the confrontation, his popularity will ebb.

Posted by: Todd Pearson at May 26, 2004 09:57 AM

Yes, a very difficult balancing act. I suspect this is a shrewd move -- but none of the options here are great.

Posted by: William Swann at May 26, 2004 10:24 AM

I think we're wise not to make Al Sadr a martyr. If the handover occurs as scheduled and a nascent goverment takes shape, at that point all Al Sadr has is rhetoric. It will be interesting to see what position he's put in at this point. If Iraqis decide to sweep him into the dustbin, he may not become a martyr, but rather a symbol of what to reject.

Hopefully Iraqis will be astute and pragmatic enough as a group to give Al Sadr the old "get off the cross we need the wood for the fire" bum's rush. Here's hoping, anyway.

Posted by: bk at May 26, 2004 11:00 AM

Today: "Rebel Cleric's Top Aide Captured in Iraq" ("The capture of al-Nouri would be a major blow to al-Sadr’s al-Mahdi Army, which has been battling coalition forces since early April.")

Posted by: Todd Pearson at May 26, 2004 11:02 AM

I agree with bk...the military is right to let Sadr fall on his own.

Posted by: Rachel at May 28, 2004 06:43 PM
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