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April 20, 2004

Third-Party Candidates and Election-tipping

There's an excellent article by Lawrence Jacobs in the Christian Science Monitor on how third-party candidates affect elections, and why Bush may have more to worry about than Kerry this time around.

The point for centrists to take a close look at is that a coherent centrist alliance can wield influence far out out of proportion to its numbers in any tight race, by drawing votes from both sides. I've said it here before. While third-party candidates may not be able to win elections, they can and do regularly decide elections.

Posted by Tully at April 20, 2004 07:08 AM
Comments

For the record I'll just clear up this statement in the article which is false:

" In Wisconsin, where Bush narrowly lost in 2000, the Libertarian candidate in the 2002 gubernatorial context took an impressive 10.5 percent, enough to help Democrat Jim Doyle break the four-term Republican hold on the state house."

A post election poll asked Ed Thompson voters this question:

Okay… if Ed Thompson had not run for Governor, would you have voted for Republican Scott McCallum, Democrat Jim Doyle, or Green candidate Jim Young? [asked only of Thompson voters]

30% Scott McCallum
30% Jim Doyle
27% Jim Young
10% Would not have voted
4% Not sure

Posted by: Adrian Augustine at April 20, 2004 10:47 AM
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