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April 14, 2004

Jesse Ventura, Mark Satin, and John Avlon

I attended the Declarations From Independents event yesterday at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, sponsored by the student Independent Caucus. A satisfying moment at the beginning was when I found out that several students had heard of the Centrist Coalition, and some were even enthusiastic readers of this blog. So keep writing. People are reading.

The moderator was David King, a professor at the school. He indicated that political opinion is more polarized now that at any time since good data became available in 1948. Polarization leads to an ugly tone of political debate, and aliented all but the most committed from politics. The political system one observes around one's 10th birthday, when one first becomes aware of politics, becomes the model of what politics is like. Many or even most young people are growing up in families where neither of their parents vote.

The next speaker was John Avlon, author of Independent Nation, a book I've purchased and heartily recommend. John is a columnist for the New York Sun, and is former speechwriter for New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. One of his goals in writing to the book is to show that not only do centrists exist, we have been around at least since Teddy Roosevelt. Because of the two party system, there is no institutional basis for centrism, so it sometimes becomes submerged. But it inevitably returns when the two parties become polarized.

Currently, we have a reactive politics where people decide what they are based on what they dislike. George W. Bush won as a centrist in 2000, but has governed as a conservative. Liberals comprise only about 20% of the electorate, so Democrats realize they need centrists. Conservatives are more like 30% of the electorate, so conservatives feel they can win going head-to-head with liberals. (Avlon didn't say this, but I would imagine that the conservative advantage works best when campaigns become very nasty, and moderates become disgusted and stay home.) Avlon concluded with a quote from Thomas Jefferson, "Every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle."

The third speaker, Mark Satin, is a former 60's radical leftist who has written a book, Radical Middle. My sense is that Satin is still "progressive" in his orientation, but he has come to realize that much partisan rhetoric is counterproductive, and an obstacle to real solutions. Satin passed through a Green Movement period, with its emphasis on finding consensus among diverse positions. Satin now belives that public policy must pick and choose among the best from the left and the right to create a new synthesis. From the right, he has absorbed the critique of big government, and the recogniztion that capitalism is more efficient than socialism. From the left, he points to lifestyle freedom and extending opportunity across social classes. Both left and right have legitimate concerns, and in the long run, one will not triumph over the other. Successful policies require satisfying both constituencies.

The final speaker was former Governor Jesse Ventura. He was the most casually dressed of all in attendence, with baggy blue jeans (he's dieting), a blue Navy Seals T-shirt, and wearing a black beard. My back was to the door when he first entered the room, but I recognized him by voice.

Ventura first got into politics by running for Mayor of Brooklyn Park, Minnesota, as a result of a dispute over sewers and sidewalks. Before he ran, both Democrats and Republicans rejected his proposals. After he won as an Independent, they both wanted him to join their party.

Later, as Governor, the first 3 years went smoothly, because Democrats and Republicans disagreed, and were forced to meet in the center, where he already was. In the 4th year, he alienated them during the budget process. He called them "gutless cowards" and they took exception to it. The Democrats and Republicans cut a deal without him.

When asked by a student about Ralph Nader, Ventura said he thought it was good that Nader stood up for what he believes. Ventura feels that Nader is unfairly blamed for Gore's loss. Gore, after all, lost his home state of Tennessee.

Jesse indicated that he might "go for it" in 2008, but has not yet made a decision.

Posted by rickheller at April 14, 2004 03:51 PM
Comments

Thanks. Will be adding Centrists as more and more discover.

I too assessed Radical Center type has more elements in common with Progressives.


Janus

Posted by: Janus at April 14, 2004 05:09 PM

Rick, that sounds really interesting, I should have joined you. My bad.

I have mixed feelings about Ventura. I think he does have some centrist leanings along with a small-l libertarian outlook. And a lot of horse sense. I guess he's best classed as a 21st century celebrity populist. I dfon't have a very good sense of what he stands for. He's quite an egomaniac.

But I have to admit I took great pleasure in such an impolitic guy getting elected. He enjoys making smartly-coiffed weasels squirm, and that always tickles my fancy. If he were running now, I'd consider him over Kerry and Bush. Talk about an ideal proxy for "the other guys are odious."

Todd, maybe you'd like to say more about Ventura. I'm curious to hear more from someone who got a longer and closer look.

Posted by: bk at April 14, 2004 07:14 PM

The history is all from memory, so rely more on Rick's researched statements.

Ventura started in elective politics in 1990 when he ran for mayor of Brooklyn Park, Minnesota. He served one-term only, and ended up getting in trouble because he continued to serve as mayor without telling anyone that he had moved out of the city. He really wasn't much of a mayor mostly because he didn't really care about anything other than correcting a perceived personal injustice.

Although he would probably deny it, I don't think he ever thought he could win the governor's race in 1998 until the last couple of days of the campaign. In the debates, he attacked both Norm Coleman and Skip Humphrey as professional politicians beholden to special interests, but neither of them responded because they didn't think Jesse could win so they focused their attacks on each other. (Kind of like the favor that Gephardt and Dean did for Kerry in Iowa.) As governor, he surrounded himself with really good moderate people from both parties, and he did accomplish some good things. Our first light rail line is opening this spring because of him, and he created a merit-based process for judicial selections that substantially increased the quality of our state judiciary. However, in my view, he wasted an opportunity to make a bigger mark. He was hostile to the press (he required a change to press badges to read "Media Jackal"), and he was hostile to the legislature. After about two years he had burned too many bridges to accomplish anything more. If he had run for reelection, he would have lost.

Please, please, don't try to make him a hero for moderates. I want his 15 minutes of fame (OK, 4 years) to be over.

Posted by: Todd Pearson at April 14, 2004 08:39 PM

Todd: What was your opinion of Tim Penny? Also whats your take on the IP? Are you involved in it in any way? And is it a good example to emulate in other states?

Posted by: Adrian Augustine at April 14, 2004 08:58 PM

Ventura's decision not to run for re-election is typical of the third party path of others who have been elected to office. John Lindsay (Liberal Party), Lowell Weicker (A Connecticut Party), James Longley (Independent), and Wally Hickel (Alaska Independence Party) all, to the best of my recollection, managed to burn enough bridges after a single term as a third party winner to make further candidacies for, respectively, Mayor of New York, Governor of Connecticut, Governor of Maine, and Governor of Alaska look futile.

To govern effectively requires committed allies throughout government and in the public. The rare third party winners do not seem to be able to meet this condition for effective governance and thus are unable to achieve political longevity.

Posted by: Rep. Mark B. Cohen at April 14, 2004 09:52 PM

In 2002, Tim Penny was in a statistical dead heat with our current Gov. Pawlenty (R) and Roger Moe (D) until a flawed poll published by the StarTribune indicated that Penny's support was weakening. After that, people decided he couldn't win and abandoned him. Damn shame. Penny, not Jesse, is my moderate hero in Minnesota. If Penny had been elected, Minnesota would have really had something to brag about.

Posted by: Todd Pearson at April 14, 2004 10:11 PM

I would second the general observation made by Rep. Cohen above. Most independent or third party candidacies are a little quirky and tend to flameout.

One exception to the rule, however, was Angus King's career in Maine. He became a remarkably popular and effective governor and was only removed from office by term limits.

It seems, in fact, that there must be "something in the water" in Maine. They've produced a litany of independent or centrist leaders -- Bill Cohen, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Angus King.

It may very well be fair to say that Maine is the most centrist state in the union.

Posted by: William Swann at April 15, 2004 09:00 AM

Rick, -- Enjoyed your pithy writeup of the "Independents" event, very accurate summaries of everyone's key points & very fair-minded too.

Posted by: Mark Satin at April 27, 2004 09:41 PM
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