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April 06, 2004

"Kerry's Crash Continues"

That is the assessment of Dick Morris in his column today.

The latest daily tracking polls by Scott Rasmussen show that President Bush has moved up six points in the past week to take a three-point lead over Sen. John Kerry. The Bush surge is catalyzed by his negative ads, which castigate the Democrat's record on taxes and terrorism, and by the Kerry camp's abysmal failure to answer the charges effectively in paid advertising.

For a while, the Kerry collapse was disguised by the national focus on Richard Clarke's accusations about Bush's policies before and after 9/11. The short-term impact of the Clarke hearings was to besmirch the Bush image, but once the headlines faded, the remorseless Bush attacks on Kerry began to take their toll in earnest.

The conventional wisdom has been that the contest between Bush and Kerry will be very close. But the evidence is mounting that it may not be. . . .

The Democrats really have no issues and their candidate is way too far to the left.

Now I realize that Dick Morris has a tendency to overstate things, but I think his article makes some very legitimate points. So far, my only reason to vote for Kerry is that he is not Bush. No matter what happens in Iraq between now and the election, I am going to need some more reasons than that.

UPDATE: Rasmussen has Kerry back up by three, 47% to 44%.

Posted by Todd Pearson at April 6, 2004 03:56 PM
Comments

But presumably, the impact of the negative ad blitz will be transitory, too. I'm not convinced that any of them does permanent damage. So Kerry is a flip-flopper. That's like saying a politician is a politician.

Posted by: rickheller at April 6, 2004 04:52 PM

I think that the flip-flopper charge can do permanent damage. The "I actually voted for the 87 billion before I voted against it" line is devastating because he proves the point with his own words. Also, I am not sure why Rove is holding it in reserve now, but when they run commercials with the tape of Kerry on Face the Nation before the Iraq funding vote (in which he said that it would be reckless not to vote for the funding), it is going to be equally damaging.

My hope is that Kerry will engage in one more major flip-flop and get more hawkish about Iraq and the war on terrorism.

Posted by: Todd Pearson at April 6, 2004 05:46 PM

I agree with you on a personal level, Rick. I don't think you can get through the United States Senate without flip flopping.

My problems with Kerry's flip flopping are that he seems to do it within one campaign cycle way too quickly, and from my point of view anyway, it feels like he is doing it for all the wrong reasons.

McCain is a flip flopper... he was short of a right wing nut before he ran for President. The difference in my book is that McCain seemed to be sincere and find his heart in a cause that he truly believed in, and ever since the election he has for the most part held strong.

Kerry is a different person than he was in Iowa. I was happy on the day that he beat Dean, because I truly thought that this was the first Democrat I was going to vote for, because he had the political courage to do what was right... but I have been disgusted with him almost ever since. All those stories about taking on the special interests, and his heroic actions in Vietnam... I was halfway to a true believer.

When Kerry became the front runner, he started pandering to his party's interests, and contradicted himself on the issues that made him an interesting candidate in the first place. Take the whole gas-aholic OPEC statements he made last week for instance... what happened to the John Kerry that said oil was our past and we needed to reduce the demand for gasoline ane encourage the use of energy alternatives? Encourage the middle to open the oil spickets? Could you pander to the UAW anymore than you already have? Give me a break!

It is a long election cycle, and I am so thirsty for leadership I am willing to hold my breath, especially since the alternative is not so much more appealing... and I even like the President... voted for him the first time. I don't think he is as bad as some say, but there is no doubt that he is not my ideal candidate and that there are many things we disagree on.

*hint* Pick John McCain, Senator... prove that you are the bold leader I thought you where. Stand up for bold initiatives like drug reform, energy reform, be strong on Iraq because it is the right thing to do, propose to truly make higher education for all a goal of the Federal Government, have the courage to stand up for your voting record on the death penalty... and gay rights... and flag burning... and all of those issues that you are right on that may be politically unpopular. Be a man for heaven's sake... win my vote!

Posted by: Mathew Pruitt at April 6, 2004 07:51 PM

My problem, to the extent I have one, is that Kerry strikes me as an empty suit. It begs the question of what do we want out of a President. I'm intrigued about McCain as VP, but I also know that a VP is essentially powerless. In this case, could it be possible that McCain may actually have an influence? His co-authored campaign finance bill was spot-on, but Trent Lott killed it through BS manuevering. My hope is that someone like him may rise to a position to make a difference. Clearly, being Senator is not enough . . . Jim.

Posted by: Jim Rogers at April 6, 2004 08:51 PM

Dick Morris and his opinions? Can't help it, keep remembering what was revealed about his proclivities and pecadillos. Morris may have been lucky because Clinton was one heck of a politician, liar by trade, and he had as they said, charisma people power. All the media types braying is good for their own ego and business. (There are far too many of them anyway. Costs us more for goods.)

Kerry voted for the $87B. It was defeated.
Then, Bush inserted his Agenda into the Bill.
Kerry then voted against it.

Gay marriages? Education spending party?
Think that is what most Centrists do not want him to do.

I don't think either Kerry or McCain have the gumption. And, for the person who stated Bush should pick McCain. For some political history, Bush, Rove, and crew attacked McCain in the last presidential primary and showed utter disdain for that officer and gentleman.

My bet is Bill Richardson, although not my preference.

Janus

Posted by: Janus at April 6, 2004 09:49 PM

Repeat after me:

"I will not claim poll fluctuations within the margin of error are sgnificant, I will not claim poll fluctuations within the margin of error are sgnificant, I will not claim poll fluctuations within the margin of error are sgnificant, I will not claim poll fluctuations within the margin of error are sgnificant, I will not claim poll fluctuations within the margin of error are sgnificant..."

Posted by: bk at April 7, 2004 10:01 AM
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