Centerfield

Far From the Certainty Found on the Fringes

It's pretty confounding to me as a centrist and independent that partisan opinions, whether they come from either the left or right, are so often characterized by such certainty. Frankly, I envy it. How wonderful it must be, I think, to have no doubt. Or, just maybe, how terrible it must be to be afraid to voice any doubts, because they might provide solace or fuel to the opposition.

Striving to stay far from these fringes, or to visit but not stay too long, I find that I really don't have a definite idea at all of how things are going in Iraq, and in the war on terrorism. What I find on my visits is this: a neat schism between the anti-war left and the pro-war right. Because they've already made up their mind about the merits of the war. All that is necessary is to search for "evidence" that supports one's position.

Things are going great! Starting from blogger king Instapundit and following links downstream, I find anecdotes of happy news. Soldiers buying toys and getting hugs. Grateful Iraqis extolling our virtues. I find statements asserting that "we are winning this war" and jokes discrediting any suggestion of "quagmire."

Things are going terrible! One multiple occasions in the past month I have run across statements from the left suggesting that our actions have helped terrorism grow. I find anecdotes of unhappy news. Bombs explode. Soldiers are attacked, and attack innocents. Iraqis express their hatred. I find statements asserting that "this war is both wrong and unwinnable." And so on.

Click through and read on, because I have some interesting sources worth reading.

Of course, none of this is news here at the CC. While the fringes become more sure of the eventual outcome (regardless of the merits of the course), we perhaps do not. I find myself very curious to have better and more comprehensive sources that might do a better job of helping me figure out the complex nature of what's going on. Some sources I view as providing either hope or despair, but not especially to be relied upon, especially anecdotes. In the last few weeks, here are the stories that I have felt comfortable in hanging my hat on, as having not much partisan tone, and concerned with a genuine exploration of current conditions in Iraq.

Closest to "Things are going great." This recent ABC poll gave me hope. It represents a decidely mixed view, but it suggests that in the opinion of Iraqis, recent progress has been made, and that there is some reason for hope.

Closest to "It's a Nightmare Unfolding." This Nir Rosen article from Reason fueled my long-held worries that Iraq's future may hold civil war and an eventual theocracy. Its in-depth, written by a journalist living in Iraq, tells stories from a variety of sources, has a good under the covers feeling, and it's from Reason, which I feel usually does a good job of trying to present things the way preferred by people who want to make up their own mind.

Though Shi'ite and Sunni leaders hastened to mouth professions of unity following the attacks in Karbala and Kadhimiya, they hate each other. Sunni and Shi'ite newspapers have grown more brazen in their attacks against each other. The only things they agree on are the need for an Islamic government (though they disagree on what it will look like) and their insistence that the Jews and Americans are to blame for all their woes. The Sunnis are scared, they fear the impending Shi'ite takeover of Iraq if anything resembling a democratic election takes place. Sunnis view Shi'ites the way white South Africans viewed blacks, and now feel disenfranchised, seeing the barbaric heathens threatening to rule their country. Many Sunnis cling to the fiction that they are in fact the majority, and the Shi'ites are all Iranians. Shi'ites don't fear the Sunnis, they just dislike them. Shi'ites hate the Kurds now, blaming them for attempting to divide the country with their calls for federalism and autonomy. Arab Shi'ites have already started supporting Turkmen in the north, who are often Shi'ite as well, in their bloody clashes with Kurds.

The whole thing is worth reading.

Closest to "We have to succeed, but we might not." This Steven Vincent article from Reason presents all the uncertainty I feel in conjunction with my sense that failure would be an unacceptable tragedy. Vincent felt compelled to visit Iraq because he felt like me, I don't really know what's going on. His view is best represented by the following:

I don’t mean to overstate the problems facing the U.S. in Iraq. Still, it bothers me to see supporters of the war assume that events are going better than the "biased," "liberal" media depict them. That may be true sometimes, but not always. Iraq is too complicated for such simple analysis -- a fact I admit I had not sufficiently considered when I stood up to endorse the war. Now, when I’m asked if the U.S. can succeed, I can only join others in answering: "We must. The prospect of failure in Iraq is too catastrophic to conceive." It’s not a policy so much as a statement of faith: that the center will hold, that democracy and freedom will triumph, that tyrants cannot long escape accountability and justice. But if it seems foolish, as it does to increasing numbers of people, to risk American lives and treasure on such an abstract concept, there are others who are risking their lives on something even less substantial: American public opinion.

Again, read the whole thing if have the time. And try not to let your hopes and fears drive you towards unwarranted certainty. Surely our future and Iraq's depend in large part on a realistic assessment of the challenges we face.