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January 27, 2004

Prediction Time...

OK, my prediction for the day in New Hampshire.

Kerry
Dean
Edwards

Clark and Leiberman fighting for fourth.

And in that order. Anyone else want to stick their neck out? :-)

Posted by Tully at January 27, 2004 10:22 AM
Comments

Something like this:

Kerry 38%
Dean 24%
Edwards 17%
Clark 12%
Lieberman 6%

Posted by: William Swann at January 27, 2004 10:41 AM

Agreed... although New Hampshire is always doing something out of the ordinary. Somebody should finish where they are not expected. The problem is, that the polls have been very consistent for the last week. Edwards who is the one I think could be the surprise really has little organization in New Hampshire and has written the state off, but I do think it is possible, but not likely he could sneak in for a second place finish. My prediction:

Kerry
Dean
Edwards
Clark
Lieberman

Lieberman will drop out this week.

Posted by: Mathew Pruitt at January 27, 2004 12:02 PM

Report from NH:

I'm back inside Clark's Derry office after 5 hours outside a school in Salem, New Hampshire (one hour off for lunch was not enough to warm up my toes).

I stood outside the Mary Fisk elementary school holding a sign with two other Clark supporters. I had friendly chats with Dean and Edwards supporters who were standing nearby. One of the Dean supporters was a film student at the U of Texas whose been working for Dean since the summer. He was "in the room" in Iowa when Dean made his famous yell. There was also a Dean supporter from Alabama.

There was only one Edwards person, but she had the biggest sign, a trifold that measured at least 6 feet wide once expanded. She's up from Washington, where she works for an environmental group. She worked for Gore in 2000, and helped set up Cher at a phone bank when she dropped by Gore HQ.

The Kerry folks were a bit standoffish. They also held signs indicating the support of the firefighters union. One of the Dean supporters was holding a sign for the Service Employees International Union.

A couple of Lieberman signholders came by at lunchtime, then quickly departed. No sign of Kucinich or Sharpton supporters.

One can frequently tell which candidate a voter prefers by which signholders the voter makes eye contact with on the way in. I don't know if holding these signs really effects any undecideds. It might possibly help in the case of a voter inclined to favor a candidate, but only if the candidate seems viable.

Posted by: rickheller at January 27, 2004 04:30 PM

Good job, Rick. Cool to hear a report from the front lines. Hope your toes warm up!

Posted by: William Swann at January 27, 2004 04:42 PM

Yeah, I'll stick my neck out and predict Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman, with the last surprisingly close to the third, enabling him to stay in the race until NY State, after which he drops out.

Why not? If I'm wrong, it's just another stupid prediction. If I'm right, it's just another stupid prediction.

Posted by: Diana at January 27, 2004 05:56 PM

I agree with the order you guys are giving, but think Leiberman's in 'til 2/5

It takes some stick-to-it-ness to go up to NH, especially to do stuff in today's weather! :-)

Posted by: Jon Kay at January 27, 2004 07:33 PM

Like I said, a stupid prediction....but I'll take the results, as my guy won.

Posted by: Diana at January 28, 2004 10:20 AM
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