Centerfield

Blogging The Numbers: Week 5

I've produced a chart examining candidate matchups by home region in the 14 presidential elections of the post-war era. It also reminds me of candy cane.

The first column shows that in races where both candidates came from outside the South (N indicates Non-southern), Republicans won 5 of 6 elections. The once exception, labelled '60, was John Kennedy's win over Richard Nixon. When a southern candidate faced one from outside the South, the Southerner prevailed in all cases except for Reagan's triumph over Carter in '80. 4 of 6 Democratic victories came when southern Democrats ran against non-southern Republicans (counting Truman vs. Dewey in '48).

As far as why southern Democrats have an advantage, I don't think it's simply because they are more centrist than non-southern Democrats. Except for Goldwater, the Republicans they defeated were relatively moderate themselves. There may simply be some sectional advantage to candidates who make southern voters comfortable without offending voters in other parts of the country.

On the other hand, the many losing non-southern Democrats have been quite liberal, and probably further from the center than the Republicans who defeated them. The single northern Democrat who won in the post-war period was John Kennedy. His narrow victory came after a campaign in which he took positions at least as muscular as the Republican on foreign policy issues. A victory by a northern anti-war Democrat in 2004 would be an astonishing reversal of the historic pattern.

A table counting blog posts mentioning the current Democratic candidates in the last week can be found at Blogging Of The President:2004

Posted by rickheller at December 22, 2003 10:16 PM