A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics
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A Weblog of Centrist Voices in American Politics | |
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December 15, 200345-45-10It's worth reading this interview with pollster John Zobgy, via Daily Kos, though I think it gives too much solace to the Democrats. I don't agree that 50-50 is the natural state of the voting population, because it leaves out us swing voters, who can lean either way decisively. It's more like 45-45-10. Posted by rickheller at December 15, 2003 12:12 AMComments
From experience on many campaigns and from analyzing many voter rolls, I'd say it's more like 35/35/30, with Indies and 3rd parties making up the 30. That's party affiliation, of course. Approval numbers for any particular politician, or support numbers for any candidate, can go all over the map in a fairly short period. The idea that those figures measured now are a predictor of next year's election is fallacious. Too much can happen between now and November, and there's no way to factor in the unforeseen. Actual real swing voters can be party members, of course, and many Indies are committed one way or another long before the elections. Posted by: Tully at December 15, 2003 12:43 PM |
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