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December 14, 2003

SADDAM CAPTURED--ACE IN THE HOLE!

In case anyone has been studiously avoiding the news this morning, the breaking news is that Saddam Hussein has been captured by the 4th Infantry 1st Brigade Combat Team (Delta Force!) hiding in a hole in a basement in a town about ten miles from Tikrit.

He was caught yesterday about noon Eastern time, and the announcement delayed until this morning while his ID was confirmed.

Posted by Tully at December 14, 2003 10:40 AM
Comments

This is great news, and it's mopre than symbolically important for Iraqis. It's important for the US effort. I expect the US will plan to have Hussein tried for war crimes, and to do so in world court. Putting on his many crimes on view before all of Europe in a lurid trial is going to make the anti-war position look even less tenable.

However, I am skeptical of the idea that the Iraqi resistance will now "dry up." I hope this is so, but the disoriented appearance of of SH makes me think he wasn't running the resistance show. OTOH, if it makes Iraqis more hopeful and enthusiastic about embracing our side, that's great.

Posted by: bk at December 14, 2003 04:51 PM

Given that the "Iraqi resistance" is a motley assortment of foreign jihadists and dead-end Baathists, I doubt this will dry up the attacks in the short run. But it will quite probably accelerate the killing and capture of those responsible. With the Baathists looking like a truly waning force, Iraqis will be more willing to provide info. And the foreign jihadists will lose much of their local support structure if the Baathists decline.

I think you're wrong about Saddam being brought to trial in world court. If I were in the Bush admin, my recommendation would be to hold him and drain him dry of any intel that can be gotten, then turn him over to the new Iraqi gov't when it's established and let them try him. Don't hold your breath waiting for Saddam to admit to anything damning, but they'll still get info out of him without breaking any of the Geneva accords, I betcha.

The reasoning: Trying him in world court allows him to grandstand and gain martyr status, glorifying himself. Trying him in an Iraqi court, under Iraqi law, and letting the Iraqi people execute him as a common criminal sends a VERY powerful message about democracy to the entire region, and a very strong warning to the rulers thereof who wish to continue supporting terrorism. It's humiliating, and humiliation is one of the most powerful adverse incentives to the Islamic mind.

And they've got several hundred thousand murder charges waiting. By the time the testimony is done, there's not going to be too many public champions of Saddam.

Posted by: Tully at December 14, 2003 05:53 PM

The Guardian has a terrific multimedia diagrams of the hiding place

http://www.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,5860,1107008,00.html

Posted by: rickheller at December 14, 2003 10:42 PM

Nice blog, really enjoyed it.

Posted by: Dish TV at October 11, 2004 08:36 PM
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