Centerfield

Closer On The Glide Path

Last week, I blogged that Bush was on the glide path toward (re-)election, barring an act of mega-terrorism. Today's capture of Saddam Hussein means that the President is even closer to winning in 2004. While the Iraq War can no longer be considered a glorious victory, neither is it a quagmire, and with the capture of Saddam, we can expect the swampy spots to dry up over time.

In another recent post, I described how Nazi plans to create an anti-occupation insurgency in 1945 were short-circuited by Hitler's suicide. While Saddam's period of liberty has allowed a Baathist insurgency to develop, there is reason to hope that it will wind down as Iraqis accept that change is irreversible. There will no doubt be more American casualties, but the likelihood that American forces will be ultimately defeated is very slim. The most likely negative outcome is that the new Iraq will be an Islamic state somewhat antagonistic, but certainly not threatening, to the United States.

I myself learned last week that I will be laid off from my job on January 30. So I am no admirer of President Bush's economic policy. But many indicators suggest the economy is recovering, and I am optimistic that my period of unemployment will be short-lived. With an improving economy and a stablized Iraq, President Bush looks like a good bet for 2004, barring the wild card--an act of mega-terror which his administration failed to prevent.