Centerfield

Winning or Losing?

It seemed to me over the last few days that a lot of folks who were skeptical about the war were possibly making too much out of our early difficulties. It's one thing to say we've run into a lot more resistance than we anticipated. It's another to conclude that we won't win, or that our victory won't come relatively soon.

That possibility is presented by the sheer level of technical superiority we have on the battlefield, combined with possible strategic mistakes on the other side, such as moving units over distances and opening them up to attack from the air.

The truth is probably in the middle with regards to all these impressions of the war. It's not what the administration says -- that things are going exactly as planned (or even ahead of schedule!). But neither is it what the skeptics are saying -- a rapidly developing quagmire.

Consider, for example, what Gwynne Dyer has to say in his syndicated column today:

"The Iraqi army turns out to be full of tough, brave men who are willing to die defending their country, even if they don't love Saddam Hussein. They are using guerrilla warfare, ambush tactics, even suicide attacks -- anything to avoid fighting in the open where U.S. air power would destroy them. Their long-term strategy remains to draw U.S. forces into the cities and inflict massive casualties on them, but there are not yet enough American troops in Iraq to even think of fighting their way into Baghdad."

"It will take at least until the end of this month for reinforcements to reach the outskirts of Baghdad, and by that time, other U.S. positions in the Arab world may have been destroyed. Popular outrage in the Arab world at the attack on Iraq is building by the day, and pro-American regimes are increasingly at risk."

"American troops must fight their way into Baghdad street by street in the May heat, probably losing a few thousand soldiers in the process."

Meanwhile, there is a significant possibility that we're defeating the Republican Guards. And, reportedly, our troops are making their way to the outskirts of Baghdad.

Technology and tactics do matter in warfare. And we have strong advantages in both.

Posted by Blogadmin at April 2, 2003 01:36 PM